Church Growth and the Pert Formula

Recently I came across a church growth calculator that you will find here. Although I think this particular calculator is way to complicated and unrealistic, I believe it is important to set goals and break them into smaller, more reasonable goals. Smaller goals are not nearly as daunting as  larger ones can be. Incredible things are accomplished in small increments. In exploring this idea, I belive the Pert formula used in determining exponential growth can be helpful in the context of church.

Pert is commonly used to predict exponential growth rates of things like investment accounts, populations, and anything that might grow in a compounding way. Churches don’t grow statically, rather as membership increases so does outreach potential.


  • A is final amount
  • P is principle
  • r is rate of growth
  • and t is time in units(i used quarters)

The prospect of doubling in two years(8 quarters) is daunting for any church; however, using A=Pert we can provide a realistic set of goals. This example is for a church that begins with 40 members.To do this you must have a compounding rate of .08664 over 8 quarters. I know this sounds way to complicated and sterile, but it makes the quarterly goals easy. below would be a(rounded) quarterly goal set for a 40 member church that wanted to reach 80 in two years. Each of these easily attainable goals are over a 3 month period; This is much easier and more realistic than looking at the big picture of doubling.

  1. 4
  2. 4
  3. 4
  4. 5
  5. 5
  6. 6
  7. 6
  8. 7

About Roger

Roger lives in North Pole, Alaska, where he has served as Youth Pastor for 8 years. Married to his partner in life Kimberly, Roger enjoys being a family man and has two amusing children, the toddler Hollister Dean, and the baby Sterling Grace.
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